The AI Productivity 'Revolution' Is Mostly Theater

The Hype Tax#

(It’s not a line item, but you’re paying it)

We obsess over cost-to-generate (so cheap! so fast!) and ignore cost-to-correct (oops). That’s the gap. If verification, fixing, and explaining take longer than doing it right the first time, congrats: you automated a cleanup crew.

• Drafts are faster; decisions aren’t.
• Summaries look smart; sources don’t exist.
• Demos clap; dashboards cry.

Reality check: a randomized trial with experienced open-source devs found they actually worked ~19% slower when AI tools were allowed—expecting speed, getting drag. ¹

Demo vs. Dashboard#

(One sells the dream, the other counts the bodies)

Demos live on the happy path: clean inputs, obvious outputs, zero consequences. Dashboards live where humans actually work: edge cases (aka real cases), weird formats, shifting policies, five Slack pings, and one VP who loves the word “agentic.”

If your “win” vanishes the moment you include exceptions, audits, or rollback time, it wasn’t a win—it was stage lighting.

The Cost-to-Correct Problem#

(Speed is cheap; certainty is not)

AI makes first drafts almost free. But final drafts—the ones you can ship, sign, or stand behind—still need judgment. Judgment is slow on purpose. When a system guesses with confidence, your team pays in verification time, escalations, and “wait, why did it do that?”

Tell me the truth:

• How long to verify each output?
• What’s the edit distance from AI draft → human-safe?
• How often do you trash it and start over?

If those numbers embarrass you, you’re funding theater, not productivity. Want to track this properly? Our time management strategies can help you measure what’s actually working.

Why Teams Are Cooling on “Magic”#

(Firsthand experience beats headlines)

Usage is up, but confidence is down where people measure results. In Wiley’s 2025 global survey of 2,430 researchers, adoption jumped to 84%, while concerns about hallucinations and over-claiming increased year over year—a classic “we tried it, we saw the limits” arc. ²

And the corporate mood music? Analysts now expect >40% of agentic-AI projects to be canceled by 2027 due to costs, unclear value, and weak risk controls—i.e., the cost-to-correct bill coming due. ³

Meanwhile, a headline-grabbing fiasco: Deloitte agreed to partially refund a government client after a report with apparent AI-generated errors (fabricated references, misattributed quotes) had to be corrected and republished. “Hallucinations” stop being cute when legal citations are on the line. ⁴

Where AI Actually Helps (Today)#

(Lower your expectations, raise your throughput)

Use it like a junior analyst who’s fast, eager, and confidently wrong sometimes:

• Make it shorter/warmer/clearer (tone-polish, summaries, rewrites).
• Boilerplate & scaffolding (emails, docs, unit-test shells, SQL drafts with validation).
• Enrichment (extract well-structured fields from well-structured inputs—then you verify).

Everything else? Treat with suspicion until the numbers say otherwise. For practical examples of AI tasks that actually work, check out our guide on using ChatGPT for everyday productivity.

The “Adulting” Scorecard (Before You Ship)#

(Tape this to your PM’s monitor)

• Boundary: Tasks, inputs, outputs strictly enumerated. No surprise tasks.
• Evidence: Every answer shows source + confidence (not optional).
• Threshold: Below precision X% or confidence Y → hard stop, escalate.
• Telemetry: Log time-to-verify and edit distance for every assisted task.
• A/B Reality: Weekly control vs. AI-assist. Keep what wins reliably.
• Kill Switch: Pre-agreed rollback plan (who, when, how). No heroics.

If you can’t check all six boxes, don’t ship “productivity.” Ship a pilot—and label it like a biohazard.

A Tiny Math Test (No Spreadsheet, I Promise)#

(Because feelings don’t pay invoices)

Net Lift = (Human-from-scratch time) − (AI draft time + verify time + fix time + rework risk)

If Net Lift ≤ 0, the revolution is a mirage. Move the task to the “assist-only” bucket or pull the plug.

Objections I Can Hear From Here#

(I love you, but no)

• “But the model improves weekly!”
  Great—re-run the A/B weekly. Ship numbers, not vibes.

• “Our domain knowledge makes it smarter.”
  Your reviewers got smarter. The model still guesses. Measure the drag.

• “Leadership wants agents.”
  Give them guardrails + audit trails and call it a day. Adult supervision is a feature, not a bug.

So What Now? (The Part Where I Actually Help)#

(Because complaining without solutions is just therapy)

Look, I’m not anti-AI. I’m anti-pretending. AI is a power tool, not a magic wand. And like any power tool, it works great when you clamp it down, define the cut, and keep your fingers clear of the blade.

The teams winning with AI aren’t the ones with the biggest models or the flashiest demos. They’re the ones who said “no” to 80% of the use cases, drew hard boundaries around the other 20%, and measured the hell out of what actually moved the needle. They treat AI like a junior analyst who needs supervision, not a VP who gets carte blanche.

So here’s my challenge: pick one AI task you’re running right now. Measure the full cycle—draft time, verify time, fix time, escalation time. Calculate your actual Net Lift. If it’s negative, kill it. If it’s barely positive, constrain it harder. And if it’s genuinely winning? Great—now prove it again next week.

Because the revolution isn’t coming from better models. It’s coming from better boundaries.

Comment Bait (tell me where it actually worked)#

(Help me help you—not your demo reel)

• Where did AI actually save you time—and where did it create cleanup?
• What’s your kill-switch threshold?
• If you could only keep one AI task in prod, which one survives?

Soft CTA#

(No pitch slap, pinky swear)

I’m packaging a 1-page Cost-to-Correct checklist and a sandbox template so you can test AI without setting your ops on fire. Want it? Drop a comment with “sandbox me” and I’ll share.

WARNING

Take away this: AI generates fast, but value ships slow. Constrain the work, measure the drag, and keep your kill switch within arm’s reach.

FAQs About AI Productivity#

Q: Are you saying AI tools are completely useless?

A: No. I’m saying they’re useful for specific, constrained tasks—not the magic productivity revolution everyone’s selling. AI is great for tone-polishing, boilerplate, and first drafts. It’s terrible at judgment calls, policy decisions, and anything where being wrong has consequences. Use it like a junior analyst, not a VP.

Q: How do I calculate if AI is actually saving me time?

A: Track the full cycle: (AI draft time + verify time + fix time + rework time) vs. (human-from-scratch time). If the AI path takes longer or produces worse results, kill it. Most teams only measure the draft time and wonder why they’re drowning in rework.

Q: What’s a “kill switch” and why do I need one?

A: A kill switch is your pre-agreed criteria for shutting down an AI task. Examples: “If precision drops below 85%,” “If verification time exceeds 2x draft time,” or “If we get more than 3 escalations per week.” You need it because AI projects tend to limp along burning resources long after they should’ve been killed.

Q: My boss wants us to use AI for everything. What do I do?

A: Show them the numbers. Run a proper A/B test on one task: AI-assisted vs. human control. Track time-to-complete, error rates, and rework. If AI wins, great—expand carefully. If it doesn’t, you have data to push back. Leadership loves “innovation” until they see the cost-to-correct bill.

Q: What AI tasks actually work well today?

A: The boring ones. Email tone-polishing, meeting summaries, boilerplate code generation (with review), data enrichment from structured inputs, and content rewrites. Basically anything where the cost of being wrong is low and verification is fast. Avoid anything involving money, compliance, or irreversible actions.

Q: How often should I re-test AI performance?

A: Weekly for production tasks, monthly for pilots. Models change, your data changes, and what worked last month might be garbage today. If you’re not continuously measuring, you’re flying blind. Set calendar reminders and actually do it.